“Steve Walsh NASA Grant on Galapagos Islands”

NASA Grant on Global Islands • Stephen J. Walsh, Richard E. Bilsborrow, Laura Brewington, Yang Shao, Hernando Mattei, Francisco Laso, Phil Page, Brian Frizzelle (2017-2020), Synthesis of Drivers, Patterns, and Trajectories of LCLUC in Island Ecosystems, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Project Goals

Our project is designed to synthesize land cover/land use change (LCLUC) patterns on islands and to assess the drivers of change. The following summarizes are approach: (1) Perform a meta-analysis of global islands by focusing on the socio-economic, geographic, and biophysical drivers of LCLUC, and assess the role of satellite remote sensing for characterizing the composition, pattern, and structure of LCLUC on islands; (2) Primary Island Sites (Hawaiian Islands, Galapagos Islands, Puerto Rico) are characterized by an assembled social-ecological data set, including, population census data, tourism data, environmental data, and a blended multi-resolution, satellite image stack; (3) Develop a dynamic systems model of the Primary Island Sites, informed through statistical analyses and case study models, and determine if a single synthetic model can be generated that is capable of capturing social-ecological dynamics to understand the drivers of LCLUC on each island; (4) Once the operating protocols have been tested and dynamic system models developed for the Primary Island Sites, we will perform sensitivity analyses to assess model performance by varying data inputs of stocks, flows, rates of exchange, and feedback loops to determine the impacts of variables on model outcomes; (5) Expand the analysis of the generalizability of the model by fitting it to Maui Island, Hawaii using population census data, tourism data, environmental data GIS data layers, and satellite assets to assess LCLUC patterns and the drivers of change. Through the analysis of the Primary and Secondary Island Sites, we explain the impacts of tourism, demographics, environmental, and economic transitions on broader LCLUC issues, decision-making, and the politics of change.

Papers identified in our meta-analysis by natural hazard type.

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